Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently...

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 11, 2025) - July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight.

Positive Seasonality for Nasdaq (1990-2024) ends this week. SPX is similar.

Detrended Seasonality for S&P 500 (1990-2024).

Namzes (July 12, 2025) - S&P 500 Forecast Update.

Namzes (July 12, 2025) - S&P 500 2025 - 1965 Analogue Update.

Nominal 20-Day Hurst Cycle in the S&P 500.

See also:

Krasi (July 12, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis.

Labels: 4 Year Cycle, Branimir Vojcic, Data Mining, Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Namzes, Post-Election Year Pattern, Presidential Cycle, S&P 500 Index, Seasonality,Steve Miller, US-Stocks

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